Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation hits Missouri, a former swing state where the GOP is now firmly in control. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new data sets; you can also find all of our calculations from 2016 and past cycles here.
While swingy Missouri backed the winning presidential candidate in every election from 1960 to 2004, Democrats picked up the state House in 1948 and the Senate in 1954, and they held both chambers for decades. But things began to change in 1992, when voters passed a term-limits law that gradually forced longtime rural Democrats out of office. The GOP took the Senate in 2000 and the House two years later, and Republic Eric Greitens' victory in last year's governor's race gave Team Red full control of the state government. The GOP holds a 117 to 46 supermajority in the House (Daily Kos Elections assigns vacant seats to the party that last held them) and an even larger 25 to nine edge in the Senate.
It certainly doesn't help Democrats that Missouri has swerved hard to the right in recent years. In 2008, John McCain defeated Barack Obama 49.4-49.2, his only win in a seriously contested state, and the first time ever that a Democratic presidential nominee had won the White House while losing Missouri. Four years later, the Obama campaign focused its efforts elsewhere, and Mitt Romney won 54-44. In 2016, Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton 56-38. Trump carried 120 of the 163 House seats and 25 of the 34 Senate districts.
We'll start with a look at the House, which is up every two years. Even though Trump's margin of victory was considerably larger than Romney's, the two carried the same counties, so it's not a surprise that few state House seats switched sides. Trump ended up losing two Romney seats while picking up two Obama districts. The only large shift in this group was HD-10, which is located in Buchanan County north of Kansas City. This seat went from 50-47 Obama to 53-39 Trump, but Democrat Pat Conway won his fourth and final term without any opposition.
The other Obama/Trump seat, HD-29 in the Kansas City area, is held by Democrat Rory Rowland. The seat drifted from 50-48 Obama to 47.4-47.1 Trump, but Rowland also had no opposition. The two Romney/Clinton seats, which were close in both presidential races, are held by Republicans.
In addition to Conway and Rowland, just three Democrats hold Trump seats. The reddest is HD-118, located south of St. Louis. The seat swung from 55-43 Romney to a punishing 71-25 Trump, but Democrat Ben Harris also won his fourth and final term without opposition. HD-21 in the Kansas City area went from 50-48 Romney to 51-42 Trump, but Democrat Ira Anders won his final term 58-42. Mark Ellebracht managed to win his first term 51-46 last year after two very close losses even as his Clay County went from 50-48 Romney to 50-43 Trump. The two Romney/Clinton seats are the only Clinton seats in GOP hands.