allen: extras (extras)
[personal profile] allen
From the CBO
projected deficit for 2014: $475 billion


estimated GDP for 2014: $17,606 billion


From the CIA Fact Book

estimated GDP for 2007: $14,560 billion


From the IRS, 2007 tax statistics
number of income tax returns with adjusted gross incomes over $1 million: 391,261

total income of those earners: $1,401,087,152,000

taxable income of that $1.4 trillion: $1,243,801,387,000

2007 GDP = 14,560. est for 2014=$17,606 billion. so that's a 20.85% increase. if we scale linearly:

taxable income: $1,503,133,000,000
# of filers: call it 400,000
amount of taxable income over $1,000,000: $1,103,133,000,000


additional tax surcharge required to balance budget using only income of over $1 million: 43%



current highest tax bracket: 35%

new $1 million tax bracket that would cover the entire 2014 deficit: 78%

So if somebody is worried about future US deficits, then maybe we should start by proposing a new 78% tax bracket for all income over $1 million (with the associated AMT and capital gains taxes to make it stick). And we can negotiate from there.

(no subject)

Date: 2010-02-17 01:28 pm (UTC)
nathanjw: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nathanjw
Well, we had a 70% highest marginal rate until 1981; there was a 77% rate in 1969, and a top rate over 90% from 1951-1963. I really don't want to take the postwar period as representative, but this seems entirely plausible. I would like to hear from some folks on the incidence of tax cheating as it compares to high marginal rates.

I'd also like to compare this to corporate income taxes - my understanding is that we have relatively high marginal rates, by international standards, but enough loopholes to drive a Citibank-sized truck through, so the actual tax incidence is comparatively low.

The capital gains tax is an curious beast. It's not clear that it should exist at all (that is, capital gains should just be income, not that they should be untaxed).

(no subject)

Date: 2010-02-17 01:33 pm (UTC)
nathanjw: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nathanjw
Also, my pedant hat compels me to point out that, mathematically, the Laffer curve is true *somewhere* on the 0-to-100% tax range. Certainly not where we are now, and probably not where you propose, but still.

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